I do trust my instincts
I do trust my instincts, most of the time. But what are “instincts”? And, if I say “I trust”, when is it true, when is it not? Are instincts impressions, leading us to judge, anticipate, wonder? About a person, what do they depend on? Is it due to appearances, scents, colours, physical attributes? Or is it more spiritual: a sense of the person’s worth, a perception of what emanates from her?
History
About events, prospects, risks, what determine our “instincts”? In what follows I am trying to uncover answers to these questions. But, first of all, let’s reflect on what history may tell us. For example the young Bonaparte, general of the Revolution, was famed for his sound military judgement, his luck, his ability to turn disadvantage into success. Did it last? Hardly.
The last of the real victories over France’s enemies was the battle of Austerlitz, against a formidable array of Austrian, Prussian and Russian armies. After that, the Emperor, by then, went from half failures to stalemates and, finally, disaster, in Russia, which led to the destruction of the empire, in a mere (1806 to 1812) six short years. So what changed? We may reach an answer by the end of this post.
First impression
For me “instincts” are rational, but mostly untraceable, consequences of education, experience, and of the fast analysis we carry out when confronted with something new: an event, a person first encountered, any new situation we find ourselves in. It has to happen fast since our attitude about the new situation has to be quasi-immediate. What am I going to do?
How am I to conduct myself toward her, or it? What should be my reply? Often we don’t have the space to consider calmly, or there is some pressure to give that reply, perhaps imposed by ourselves. In any case we form a “first impression” that may determine our future attitude. Life is generous and may afford us more reflection, but mostly these first impressions have to be our guide. Does it work? When it doesn’t, do we understand why not?
Appearance
Considering the example of a first encounter can we follow the process? At first we have to take in the appearance, then, in short steps, the language, the words, and a little after more subtle indices, like scent, gestures, the way the person moves, or stays still. All this is grabbed in a few seconds, then confirmed or the opposite, if time permits. Over a matter of days, or weeks, that first “image” is confirmed or contradicted by experience.
“He seemed an honest fellow, but he turned out to be a freak…” “She was charming, but it’s all appearance, she’s a prick…” Personally I tend not to judge too fast, while relying on my final “first impression”. I found that I rarely need to reconsider, after a while. There have been examples though when this failed me, the nice guy who turned out a liar, the wise lady, who hides a hideous malice. In what proportion is my initial judgement confirmed by reality, when possible? I would say probably in half the cases I can recall.
Politics
About events, in politics, in history in the making, I am more successful. I have deemed our leadership a bunch of morons for some decades, and have not been proven wrong, so far. But what about their judgement? Well this takes us back to Buonaparte. Luck is evidently important in politics. The lucky “leader”, usurper or not, is always at risk of his luck running out. His reliance on his “instincts” is a matter of manipulation also.
For example Napoleon III, nephew of no 1, a poor politician but successful, for a while, manipulator, who completely misjudged the French army’s ability to face up to Prussia. There are many others. His uncle did not “run out of luck”: his myth was bound to be debunked against a harder reality, in his case the power of the Russian national spirit. We are evidently not short of other examples in more recent history, and in our present.
I am not sure what I can conclude in the matter of trusting “instincts”. A criteria I feel able to adopt, is that positive instincts should be treated with care, while negative ones can be depend on, at least provisionally. I am aware of the pessimistic nature of this rule.
Trust
“In conclusion, while instincts can often guide us in navigating new situations, it’s crucial to remember that they serve as indicators of our immediate feelings—be they positive or negative. In many cases, our negative instincts can be particularly valuable, as they help us recognise and manage potential risks, allowing us to make more informed decisions. So, the next time you find yourself facing something new, take a moment to tune in to those instincts; they might just steer you in the right direction. Embracing both our gut feelings and rational thought can lead to a more balanced approach in life’s unpredictable journey.”
Image source: Crossing the Berezina River on 29 November 1812, Peter von Hess
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